Evaluación del balance energético en el Sur del Ecuador mediante el modelo de optimización de los sistemas energéticos urbanos (URBS)

Abstract

As the share of renewables has grown to high penetration in some countries, flexibility options have become vital to ensure a reliable and sustainable power system. Energy modeling provides the qualitative and quantitative knowledge needed for future energy system planning and operation. Ecuador already has a large percentage of renewable energy due to its large hydroelectric potential, however, overdependence on this resource must be avoided through good energy planning, balancing resources and available technologies. This study performs an energy balance using the urbs modeling framework to evaluate the possibility of creating a diversified and clean energy mix that can supply the projected future demand in southern Ecuador, taking into account technical and economic criteria for each type of technology available. The results show that it is possible to achieve a decentralized energy mix based mostly on renewable energies with an energy contribution of 85.43% with hydroelectric power plants, 9.3% with renewable energy power plants (biomass, wind and solar), 4.71% with natural gas power plants and only 0. In addition, it is observed that investment in renewable energy generation can significantly reduce the use of technologies based on fossil fuels, which implies a reduction in fuel use of up to 70% and a 27% reduction in CO2 emissions.