Simulación de la calidad y cantidad del agua de la cuenca del Río Tomebamba bajo escenarios de cambio climático mediante el modelo hidrológico SWAT

Abstract

Climate change affects global climate system and water cycle, this has an impact on water quality and quantity. The aim of this work is to determine the potential impact of climate change on water quality and quantity in the Tomebamba River watershed through the application of SWAT model. For this purpose, time series of climatic, hydrological and water quality variables and climate projected variables for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are needed, together with topographic, land use and land type information. The results of the SWAT model application were good and satisfactory during calibration and validation period, which made it possible to establish the behavior of flow, dissolved oxygen and nitrates + nitrites during the base period and climate change scenarios. The findings demonstrate that it is possible that the water quality will decrease due to a decreasing trend of dissolved oxygen and an increasing trend of nitrates + nitrites in the future, associated with a higher incidence of drought and flooding events. These results are boosted during the RCP 8.5 scenario. The present study will contribute to improve integrated water management, with information on the future condition of water quality and quantity, while allowing the entities in charge the generation of strategies that take into account the hydrologic and climatic variations to which they are exposed.