Desempleo regional en el Ecuador: el papel de la heterogeneidad espacial en el desempleo a nivel cantonal para el Ecuador 2001 y 2010

Abstract

This study uses the 2001 and 2010 population and housing censuses with information from 213 cantons and 4 non-delimited areas of Ecuador to analyze the determining factors that affect unemployment. In developing the proposal, cross-sectional models and panel data are used, and a spatial panel data methodology is emphasized to find these determinants, as well as the spillover effects of unemployment. The variables considered are related to the productive and commercial structure, the demographic characteristics and those of knowledge. The main findings show the existence of spatial autocorrelation, which suggests that the unemployment rate of a canton is also defined by the rates of its neighboring cantons through the spill-over effect that, if not considered, would create biases in the estimates, showing the suitability of a spatial methodology. Regarding the determinants, it was found that the cantonal unemployment level is determined by variables of the productive structure such as the proportion of people belonging to the Economically Active Population who work in the agricultural, commercial, industrial and construction sectors, as well as the variables demographics of racial minorities, Afro-Ecuadorians and indigenous people, the proportion of young people between 15 and 25 years old; and finally, the variables related to the academic level of its population: illiteracy, high school education and the proportion of people with a university degree. The contribution that emerges from this research is related to the need to implement labor policies that consider these aspects of regional heterogeneity in the unemployment rate in order to dissipate these differences.