Índice de riesgo a la pérdida de empleo y su relación con el sector informal, evidencia empírica para Ecuador

Abstract

This research evaluates the role of the Risk Index for Job Loss (IRPE) on informality in Ecuador for the years 2015-2018. The categorical principal components analysis (CATPCA) and the logistic regression model with robust standard errors are used as the main estimation strategies in the article. The findings suggested that the IRPE exerts a positive and significant effect on informality; however, the economic analysis suggests that a measure that increases the IRPE cut-off point increases the probability of belonging to the informal sector, but with decreasing returns, that is, its increase is smaller and smaller. Therefore, it is concluded that the higher de individual’s IRPE score, their probability of belonging to the informal sector increases