Análisis del impacto ambiental de la recepción de industrias extranjeras aplicando la metodología de la estimación de la curva de Kuznets: casos de China e India

Abstract

This study had the aim to determine the impact of cross-border pollution for the case of China and India, during the period 1971-2019, by applying the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) approach. For this, an estimate of an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), which was proposed by Pesaran and Shin (1998), was applied. The level of impact of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the consumption of renewable energy, the consumption of fossil fuels and the 𝐶𝑂2 emission levels of the USA was evaluated for the case of China, and the case of Germany for India, according to the emission levels of the countries within this research. Additionally, with the Granger causality test, it is possible to confirm the hypothesis of cross-border pollution or the pollution paradises for both cases. Finally, the application of a forecast based on the ARIMA methodology shows a growth a in the emission levels of CO2 for both cases until 2030.