Presión fiscal y su influencia en el bienestar. Un análisis comparativo de América Latina frente a los países de la OCDE (periodo 2005-2015)

Abstract

The purpose of this research is perform a comparative study between the countries of Latin America and the OECD countries, in which the index of fiscal pressure and their welfare is related. This welfare focused in three perspectives: economic growth, equality and human development. The data covers 18 countries in Latin America and 34 OECD countries for the period 2005-2015; In a first stage, countries are classified according to their fiscal pressure and the main tax collection items of each one using a cluster analysis. In a second stage, the real influence of fiscal pressure on the welfare represented by GDP per capita, the Gini coefficient and the Development Index. Human (IDH) is analyzed. Other variables are also incluided such as public spending, inflation, unemployment rate, among others. The econometric analysis is done under a static and dynamic approach, the last one using the Arellano-Bover / Blundell-Bond system estimator. This is applied individually to the countries of Latin America and the OECD, as well as a whole. The results of this study proved the proposed hypothesis, showing that increases in fiscal pressure are reflected in an improvement of welfare in its three perspectives, both globally and segmented. In addition, in each dynamic equation the coefficients associated with the lagged dependent variables are statistically significant. According to the present study, the results of the commercial opening, public spending are contrary to what was expected. Finally, in the global analysis, it was found that public spending on education reduces inequality but negatively affects economic growth and human development