Evaluación de la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública en el Ecuador, periodo 2000-2014

Abstract

This paper examines the sustainability of public debt of Ecuador’s post dollarization period. Most studies that have addressed this issue used as methodology test the seasonal in the ratio debt/GDP, and it has been shown that in the case of Ecuador, debt was on a path of sustainability. However, after several years of maintaining an economic model focused on public spending, is necessary a more rigorous assessment of sustainability which cointegration contrasts between income and expenditure using an Error Correction Method (ECM), whereupon it was found that the public debt in the period 2000 to 2014 is sustainable, but in a weak sense in the absence of cointegration. This result is due to the Ecuador's main source of financing is the sale of oil, whose prices experienced significant declines that aggravated the fiscal deficit, because the public spending is not be reduced to accordingly. This implies that the implementation of a fiscal rule is needed to improve risk indicators and the state be able to access to financial markets in better conditions.