Pronóstico de sequías - caso de estudio en la cuenca del río Machángara

Abstract

Droughts are a natural phenomenon that affect both ecosystems and people benefiting from various water services (supply of drinking water, hydropower, irrigation, etc.). Anticipating its occurrence could help plan and manage water resources in a more efficient way to reduce the negative impact on different water users. This study aims to provide drought forecast for six months ahead by the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and flows (SSI) in three time windows. The Chulco river microbasin, located in the hydrographic system Machángara-Paute-Santiago in the south of Ecuador, has been chosen to test the methodology. The results show that the best forecasts were obtained when using the SSI for the first three months. This study could be useful for decision makers in defining the most appropriate policies for the prevention and drought mitigation.