Evaluación de métodos heurísticos y matemáticos para la determinación del potencial de generación distribuida con energía fotovoltaica

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to evaluate heuristics and mathematical models that can be used for Determining the Potential of Distributed Energy with Photovoltaics, for this purpose used the information available in public, private , freely available on the net, being homogenized in format and length. The chosen study area corresponds to the territory of the Canton Cuenca, for analysis of solar radiation in the month of September 2001 , sources of information such as: InstitutoGeográficoMilitar, CONELEC , satellite data repositories of the area available on the web, meteorological yearbooks INAMHI, ConsejoNacional de Electricidad ( CONELEC ) - Atlas Ecuador Solar Electricity Generation purposes were used. The data were subjected to statistical analysis and geo -statistics to determine their performance and reliability in use established variables of central tendency and semivariogram analysis, methods : Inverse Distance Weighting , Universal Kriging and Natural Neighbor were used. The mathematical model used is that proposed by Suri , M., and J. Hofierka to implement in Geographic Information Systems including statistical analysis, while the heuristic corresponds to the proposal developed by P. Vanegas , Cattrysse D., Van Orshoven J. for analysis for analysis of similar areas in raster maps, and methods as Celular Automata. The results were compared with similar Solar Atlas, one of the limitations of this study is similar projects with existing information analysis in the area, concluding that existing information and methods used are reliable for determining potential areas for generation distributed approach remains as future research involving multiple criteria analysis variables and development stages for generating search areas, buildings or areas are siting.