Estimación por métodos estadísticos de la dotación futura de agua potable para la comunidad Bayas-Azogues. Comprobación de diseños del sistema

Abstract

In this study, we hydraulically assessed the current design of the Drinking Water Distribution Network in the Aurelio Bayas parish, located in Azogues, with the aim of projecting its operation over the next 25 years. The Junta Administradora de Agua Potable Regional Bayas (JAAPRB) provided essential user data, including username, identification number, sector, average consumption, and year of incorporation. Using this information, we categorized users by sector and year of incorporation, allowing an estimation of the population for the next 25 years, and conducted an estimation of the necessary allocation for the future population. Subsequently, with information about users connected to the network, we incorporated future properties that will have access to the water service, considering aspects of urbanization and topography. With this, we assigned new demands to the current and assumed nodes. Through the simulation of the current network in EPANET, issues with pressures and velocities outside the allowed range were identified. Two proposed solutions involved adjustments to pipe diameters, the implementation of closed circuits with new pipes and pressure and flow control valves. Additionally, a pumping system was implemented in the second option. The first solution achieved compliance with standards for 95% of nodes and 86% of pipes. The second option allowed 97% of nodes and 86% of pipes to maintain pressures and velocities within established limits