Análisis de la disponibilidad hidroeconómica futura del agua en la cuenca del río Tomebamba usando el modelo WEAP

Abstract

The Tomebamba sub-basin is one of the four largest sub-basins in the city of Cuenca, with an area of 38,041 ha. The river is born in the "three crosses", an area belonging to the Cajas National Park and ends at the junction with the Machángara River forming the Cuenca River. The basin has suffered great alterations over the last decades due to anthropogenic activities, the same ones that deteriorate the hydric capacity and the quality of the water, as well as the climatic variability that has played an important role in this sense. This has caused great economic and material losses. In this aspect, with the purpose of solving this problem, different hydroeconomic models have been implemented in similar basins in order to generate scientific evidence for decision making. In this study, the future hydroeconomic availability of water in the Tomebamba river basin was analyzed using the WEAP model. For the development of the model, remote sensing data, climatic, hydrological, water demand, from various digital databases were used. Based on the results generated by the model, the necessary data was obtained to determine the future behavior of the Tomebamba river basin in the years 2021 - 2050, which depended on the climatological and hydrological variations that occurred in the base years (1998 - 2014). Based on different climatic and demographic scenarios, information was generated on the analysis of water supply and demand in the Tomebamba river basin, based on different climatic and demographic scenarios. Finally, an economic analysis of water availability was carried out, highlighting the unsatisfied demands for water in the different current and future scenarios.