Análisis del comportamiento electoral y la influencia del voto económico en América Latina

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the role played by the economy in Latin American electoral behavior and tests the existence of the economic voting phenomenon in Latin America. For this purpose, a set of models are estimated, both panel data and logistic regression, based on data from two public opinion surveys, Latinobarómetro and the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), and official macroeconomic information from 17 countries in the region for the period 2005-2017. The results suggest the presence of the economic voting phenomenon in the region, where Latin Americans are using the vote as a reward or punishment mechanism, making the incumbent government responsible for the economic performance of their nations. In this way, positive economic results are associated with greater electoral support for the incumbent.