Impacto de los desastres naturales sobre el crecimiento empresarial: un análisis del terremoto del año 2016 en Ecuador

Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of the 2016 earthquake in Ecuador on business growth in the short and medium term, measured by the variation rate of sales. For this, information from the Ecuadorian Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC) is used. The methodological proposal combines matching techniques with the double difference method. The results suggest that the earthquake had a negative effect on business growth in 2016, which was maintained in the medium term (2017-2018). Through a disaggregated analysis at the sectorial level by branch of economic activity, it was found that the earthquake negatively affected the growth rate of sales of commercial companies in the short and medium term, and the business growth of construction in the medium term. No evidence of a causal effect of the earthquake on business growth was found for the group of cantons with the highest degree of affectation, possibly because the effect of the earthquake was somewhat attenuated by the effect of the public policy of resource transfers and Tax incentives for the provinces of Manabí and Esmeraldas, within which are grouped the cantons that make up the treatment group with the highest degree of primary impact due to the earthquake.