Predicción de quiebra bajo el modelo Z2Altman en empresas de construcción de edificios residenciales de la provincia del Azuay

Abstract

The objective of the following research is to apply and analyze Z2 Altman Model efficiency in the prediction of bankruptcy around construction companies of residential buildings in Azuay province, also classify them in risk zones and identify factors inside its business cycle which lead to failure, the purpose of this is to give useful information to help decision making and proper planification in situation of insolvency. The model used in this research, at first was Z2 variant; however, it was compared with Z1 Model to validate the results of 16 companies previously selected by the Superintendencia de Compañías during 2014-2018 period. The research concluded that Z2 Altman Model predict efficiently the insolvency in most of the companies analyzed and that the construction subsector keeps in the safe zone generally.