Eficacia de la escala BISAP para predicción temprana de severidad en pancreatitis aguda biliar. Hospital Vicente Corral Moscoso. Cuenca, enero 2014 – julio 2015

Abstract

Introduction: the acute pancreatitis is a pathology in our environment, presents a high morbility and mortality according to the severity, hospital stay and complications. To detect early severity assessment scales as there BISAP, APACHE II and Ranson affects their aggressive initial management to prevent complications Objetive: to determine the effectiveness of the scale BISAP in early prediction of severity in pancreatitis acute biliary, Vicente Corral Moscoso Hospital. Cuenca, 2014 - 2015. Material and methods: we conducted a diagnostic test study, with a sample of 127 patients with acute pancreatitis calculated as EPIDAT 4.0, infinite poblation, proportion 30%, confidence level 95%, precition 8% which discharged with criteria of inclution and exclution. It was in used the consensus Atlanta 2012 for the diagnosis of Acute Pancreatitis was used and the three scales applied to predict severity. Data were analized in SPSS 15 Software. Results: the prevalence of severe pancreatitis was 14,2 % and the mortality rate of 3.9 %. The values for the scale APACHE-II of the sensitivity is 55.56 %, specificity 98.17 %, Value Predictive Positive 83.33 %, Value Predictive Negative 93.04 %. For BISAP the sensitivity is 61.11 %, a specificity of 96.33 %, Value Predictive Positive 73.33 %, Value Predictive Negative 93.75 %. The lowest are for Ranson. According to the area under the curve, the highest value was observed for the scale of BISAP with a value of 0.942, APACHE-II 0.937 and the scale Ranson whose value is 0,874. Conclusions: the best scale to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis is the BISAP for presente the value low of curve y sensibility higher than the other scales